Wen-Cai Liu,1,2 Ming-Xuan Li,2 Wen-Xing Qian,3 Zhi-Wen Luo,1,4 Wei-Jie Liao,1,4 Zhi-Li Liu,1,4 Jia-Ming Liu1,4
1Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, People’s Republic of China; 2The First Clinical Medical College of Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, People’s Republic of China; 3School of Computer and Information Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, 100044, People’s Republic of China; 4Institute of Spine and Spinal Cord, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330006, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence: Jia-Ming Liu
Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, No. 17 Yongwaizheng Street, Donghu District, Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China
Tel/Fax +86-791-86319815
Email [email protected]
Objective: This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning model for predicting bone metastases (BM) in prostate cancer (PCa) patients.
Methods: Demographic and clinicopathologic variables of PCa patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. We used six different machine learning algorithms, including Decision tree (DT), Random forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Logistic regression (LR), Naive Bayes classifiers (NBC), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB), to build prediction models. External validation using data from 644 PCa patients of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from 2010 to 2016. The performance of the models was evaluated using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy score, sensitivity (recall rate) and specificity. A web predictor was developed based on the best performance model.
Results: A total of 207,137 PCa patients from SEER were included in this study. Of whom, 6725 (3.25%) developed BM. Gleason score, Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) value, T, N stage and age were found to be the risk factors of BM. The XGB model offered the best predictive performance among these 6 models (AUC: 0.962, accuracy: 0.884, sensitivity (recall rate): 0.906, and specificity: 0.879). An XGB model-based web predictor was developed to predict BM in PCa patients.
Conclusion: This study developed a machine learning model and a web predictor for predicting the risk of BM in PCa patients, which may help physicians make personalized clinical decisions and treatment strategy for patients.
Keywords: prostate cancer, bone metastasis, machine learning, prediction model, SEER
Introduction
Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common non-skin cancer among men globally, with approximately 1.6 million cases and 366,000 deaths reported each year.1,2 Metastatic prostate cancer has important clinical implications, and metastatic disease may occur on the occasion of …….